Rapid7, Inc. (RPD)

Rapid7 remains cash-flow positive with high gross margins (~69%) and meaningful liquidity (about $702.6m cash + short-term investments at 6/30/2026 per the SEC 10-Q). But near-term growth has turned flat-to-down (H1 2026 revenue -0.9% YoY; FY2026 revenue guidance $837–$841m) and leverage is elevated (net debt/EBITDA ~8.8; Altman Z-Score ~-0.08) with a large 2027 convertible maturity. Overall: mixed—cheap EV/Sales and high free-cash-flow yield, but execution and refinancing/event risk keep the score at 3.

Dominant catalyst is a fresh JPMorgan sell-side downgrade (announced, 2026-09-15) that knocked shares down with no offsetting bullish catalyst; the news delta is determinate but cooling — a mildly positive 90d baseline (+0.11) has flattened to ≈+0.01 in the 14d window, while the freshest third-party items are sharply bearish. Red-Flag Screen: moderate red-flag cap applied (sharp ≤14d sentiment deterioration with no offsetting bullish catalyst); legal screen shows only stale law-firm solicitation noise, and the forward catalyst calendar is empty.

Bullish trend frame: price 12.46 sits above SMA20 (11.87), SMA50 (11.47), SMA200 (9.76), EMA9 (11.60), EMA21 (11.63) and the daily VWAP (12.43) after a two-day +24% surge off the 09-11 close of 10.31. Momentum is repairing: RSI14 55.69 (neutral-bullish), Williams %R -36.76 (neutral), MACD line 0.04 back above zero with the histogram (-0.05) contracting for five straight sessions; the one soft signal is ADX14 at 18.70, showing trend strength is still weak. Volume confirms: the +20.4% breakout session (09-14) traded 4.0M shares against a $22.2M 20-day average dollar volume, and the 09-15 pullback came on lighter volume (2.78M). Score 4: strong two-day breakout structure with one weak signal (ADX / not-yet-positive MACD histogram). Tradability is separately blocked: qualitativeScore 2 (below the hard floor of 3) and the overnight-gap gate (max regular-session gap 5.09% > 5.0%).