Redwire Corp (RDW)

Recent filings show RDW accelerating after the Edge Autonomy deal: Q2 2026 revenue grew about 90% year over year and gross margin rebounded to the high-20% range, while liquidity improved sharply (cash about $558M at 6/30/2026). The weak point is sustained profitability—FY2025 gross margin fell to roughly 5%, GAAP losses were very large, and free cash flow was materially negative—so the investment case depends on continued execution and margin durability. Overall this looks like a high-growth, high-volatility turnaround rather than a steady compounder.

A bearish capital-structure overhang — the active $500M ATM equity program (announced; Aug 28 −0.4 dilution selloff) — offsets a market-rewarded tape (Q2 beat aftermath, 27% weekly rally, SOF Week premarket pop, institutional 13F accumulation) with a determinate, modestly improving media delta (−0.06 baseline → +0.04 scoring) and thin, low-confidence retail. Moderate red-flag caps applied (growth-context dilutive offering; conflicting in-window bullish/bearish signals).

Bullish pullback setup: the 09-21 session closed 11.60 (+8.0%) on 13.9M shares, reclaiming the SMA50 (10.73) and SMA200 (10.86) and turning the short-term stack up. MACD histogram is positive and expanding (+0.07) and RSI14 (54.7) has room, but the MACD line is still marginally below zero (-0.07) and ADX14 (14.8) shows a weak, range-bound trend, so the read is mixed-but-improving — scored 3 rather than 4. A limit at 11.05 (EMA9/EMA21 confluence above the 09-21 session low 11.00) buys the pullback with a structure stop at 10.14 (below the 4-session base low 10.30) giving R/R 1.71. The breakout stop above the settled 09-18 high 11.75 was evaluated and rejected: the same structure stop yields risk 1.62 and R/R 0.96 (< 1.0).