iQIYI, Inc. (IQ)

iQIYI's fundamentals are weak: revenue declined 6.6% in FY2025 and continued falling in H1 2026 while the company swung back to net losses (RMB -206M FY2025, -582M H1 2026) and operating cash flow collapsed from RMB 2.11B to RMB 103M. Interest coverage is below 1x, working capital is deeply negative, and roughly US$955M of maturities land inside ~19 months against US$608M cash with no firm refinancing path. Low multiples (EV/EBITDA 1.24x, P/B 0.52) look attractive but rest on content-amortization-heavy EBITDA and negative earnings; a 6% coupon on recently exchanged notes and an opaque US$636.6M loan to PAG are caution flags. No going-concern language and an active buyback temper the worst case, but the trajectory is deteriorating - do-nothing/watchlist territory for short-term buying.

Dominant near-term signal is the Q2 2026 earnings miss (2026-08-18, announced): wider net loss, revenue −5%, ~21.9% post-print slide, plus a JPM price-target cut to US$1.20 — with a determinate sharp deterioration in media sentiment (+0.53 baseline → −0.28 scoring) and no market-rewarded bullish offset; moderate red-flag cap applied (sharp ≤14d sentiment deterioration). Legal screen clean; retail indeterminate.

Price 1.03 sits below every key moving average (SMA20 1.24, SMA50 1.16, SMA200 1.51, EMA9 1.13, EMA21 1.19) after the post-earnings collapse from ~1.35; MACD line -0.04 has rolled below zero with histogram -0.04; ADX 37.7 confirms a strong, directionally-down trend; RSI 33.5 and Williams %R -94.7 are oversold but show no reversal trigger; heavy-volume distribution days dominate (9.2M-11.4M shares on down days vs 3.6M on the 08-25 bounce). Broken structure - score 1.